Liquidity & Technical

Liquidity & Technical

The stock can absorb large-cap institutional execution at normal participation limits — roughly $574M of capacity clears in five trading days at 20% of ADV, supporting a 5% position for a fund up to about $11.5B in AUM. The tape, however, is the opposite story: CHTR is at its 10-year low, is below every moving average we track, has lost two-thirds of its market value in twelve months, and is sitting at a realized-volatility regime more extreme than any prior point in the past five years. Liquidity is not the bottleneck — the trend is.

1. Portfolio implementation verdict

2. Price snapshot

The shares sit at the bottom of their 52-week range, having shed two-thirds of their value over twelve months. Beta is a market proxy; the realized behavior of the stock has been materially worse than the broad tape.

3. The price story: ten years, two moving averages

The chart compresses a brutal arc: a 2016–2021 secular advance from $200 to $821, a 2022 first leg down, an attempted 2023–mid-2025 rally back to $400-plus, and then a vertical sell-off from June 2025 ($409) to today ($140). All three lines now slope down; price leads them lower. From a multi-year vantage, the stock has retraced to roughly its 2016 starting point — ten years of equity-holder return have been erased.

4. Relative strength vs benchmark

5. Momentum — RSI and MACD over 18 months

RSI sits at 27.3 — oversold but only marginally; it printed deeper readings of 17–20 during the August 2025 capitulation, and what looks like a "support" at 25 is really just consecutive oversold prints with no momentum reversal. The MACD histogram is the more interesting line: it has been negative for most of 2025 and 2026, but the most recent prints are less negative (-6.9 → -4.1 → -2.0), the first faint sign of selling pressure easing. Near-term (1–3 months) read: capitulation behavior, no confirmed bottom.

6. Volume, capitulation days, and the volatility regime

The 50-day average daily volume has nearly doubled since mid-2025 — from roughly 1.3M shares to 2.6M. That is sustained heavy turnover, not a one-day event. Three days carry the story:

Two of the three largest volume days in CHTR's 10-year history have come in the last twelve months, both on heavy down-days. The 2026-04-24 print — 13.3M shares, -25.5% — was the largest single-day decline in the available series and arrived on roughly seven-times-average volume. Catalyst attribution is inferred from timing; precise event language belongs to the Quant tab.

7. Institutional liquidity panel

ADV(20d) is 64% higher than ADV(60d) on a share basis — the recent capitulation period is itself generating the high liquidity readings, which is typical of distressed names. Annual turnover at 373% is extreme for a large-cap utility-like business; it reflects forced repricing rather than steady-state float rotation.

Median 60-day intraday range is 1.73% of price — below the 2% impact-cost flag, so block trading does not face structural slippage problems beyond the volatility itself.

The numbers in plain English: at 20% of ADV, an issuer-level position equal to 2% of market cap ($387M) can be cleared in roughly four trading days, and a 1% position ($193M) in two. At a more conservative 10% participation rate, a 1% of mcap position is the largest that exits within a five-day window. Liquidity is therefore not what limits this name for any reasonable fund — the technical setup is.

8. Technical scorecard and 3–6 month stance

Aggregate score: -4. Five of six dimensions confirm the bearish read; only the contrarian "fully oversold at a multi-year floor" dimension scores positive, and that is a tactical setup, not a thesis.

Stance

Bearish on a 3-to-6-month horizon. The trend is unambiguous, momentum has not turned, and the two largest down-volume days in the stock's recorded history have arrived in the past twelve months on what the tape is treating as earnings disappointments. Realized volatility at 98% argues for either no position or a deliberately small one against a hard invalidation. The mildly less-negative MACD histogram and a sub-30 RSI suggest a counter-trend bounce is possible — but the level data say the burden of proof now sits on the bulls, not the bears.

Two specific levels frame the next decision:

• Bullish reclaim — $200. A weekly close above $200 puts price back above the 50-day SMA and reclaims the consolidation range of late 2025; that would be the first meaningful trend break and is the level at which a "watchlist" name becomes a "small starter" name.
• Bearish breakdown — $130. A close below $130 on heavy volume would extend the all-time-low capitulation and likely accelerate forced selling; the more conservative implementation is to wait for that wash before considering any contrarian entry.

Liquidity is not the constraint — a fund can build or exit any reasonable position size in this name within five trading days. The constraint is the tape, and the correct implementation right now is watchlist only until either the $200 reclaim or a confirmed capitulation flush below $130.